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Author: Admin | 2025-04-28
View that the industry’s focus on older and known deposits limits the chances of finding huge gold discoveries in early-stage prospects. No kidding.“The lack of quality discoveries in the recent decade does not bode well for the gold supply,” said Manalo.“Based on the latest monthly Gold Commodity Briefing Service, we expect gold supply to peak in 2026 at 110 million ounces, driven by increased production Australia, Canada and the US — countries that also account for the most discovered gold.”He added that gold supply is expected to fall to 103 million ounces in 2028, resulting from a decline in supply from these countries.Why would supply decline from these countries? In Canada and the United States, it can take up to two decades to build a mine from discovery to production. Any new mines that started on the development path from 2008 onwards likely won’t add to the gold supply by 2028, because they won’t yet be operational. With few mines in the pipeline in these jurisdictions, mine production must come from existing, increasingly depleted mines.As for peak gold, it’s already here.In a world of resource depletion, it falls to gold exploration companies to fill the gap with new deposits that can deliver the kind of production required to meet gold demand, which is currently out-running supply.The gold market continues to experience tightness due to difficulties expanding existing deposits, and a pronounced lack of large discoveries in recent years. In 2023, 4,448 tonnes of gold demand minus 3,644t of gold mine production left a deficit of 804t. Only by recycling 1,237t of gold jewelry could the demand be met. (The World Gold Council: ‘Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2023’)This is our definition of peak gold. Will the gold mining industry be able to produce, or discover, enough gold, so that it’s able to meet demand without having to recycle jewelry? If the numbers reflect that, peak gold would be debunked. We’ve been tracking it since 2019, and it hasn’t happened yet.In the second quarter of 2024, gold demand reached its highest second quarter on record, but supply still failed to keep pace. Mine production of 929.1 tonnes fell short of total gold demand of 1,258.2 tonnes. Only by recycling 335.4 tonnes could Q2 gold supply meet Q2 demand.It isn’t only gold projects that juniors are having trouble getting financed, leading to fears that a paucity of new deposits will lead to
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